The U.S. September CPI data is expected to show growth rates similar to August, with both headline and core annual inflation likely approaching 3.0%—a full percentage point above the Federal Reserve's 2.0% target, Dean Baker, Chief Economist at UK research institution CEPR, said on October 23. Energy components, which rose 0.7% in August, may demonstrate rapid growth again in September, while food-at-home inflation could moderate after August's 0.6% increase. Core CPI is likely to reach 0.3% month-over-month, potentially rounding to 0.4%. Baker noted that for the Fed, the direction of inflation change may be more concerning than the level itself, as inflation appears more likely to rise than fall before tariff impacts fully pass through to consumers, with complications from potential new tariffs and broader deportation effects across industries.