Bitcoin’s composite Bull-index is around 23%, while the fast version has slipped to 18%, forming a FAST < SLOW divergence that has historically preceded corrections or sideways phases. The current -5.28 point gap is moderate, but it is the first warning this month and aligns with a tactically fragile setup ahead of the December 9–10 Fed meeting and the December 10 rate decision. With futures implying an 85% chance of a 25 bps cut to the 3.50–3.75% range, keeping baseline long exposure while avoiding added risk is framed as prudent amid fading short-term momentum.

US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds attracted $75.4m in net inflows on November 19, ending a five-day outflow streak, data show. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust led with $60.6m in inflows. Fidelity's FBTC experienced $21.4m in outflows during the same session.

Gold dropped 6.8% on October 21, recording its steepest single-day decline in 12 years after reaching a record high of $4,381 per ounce. Tether minted $1 billion USDT within 24 hours, according to blockchain data. Institutional investors allocated $619 million into Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs with zero outflows, suggesting potential capital rotation from traditional assets into digital currencies.

Bitcoin trades around $107,600, reflecting a 0.7% decline over 24 hours and a 4.8% drop over the past week, data show. The cryptocurrency has struggled to regain momentum after briefly surpassing $112,000. Analysts remain divided on whether Bitcoin will rebound or face deeper correction, with on-chain metrics presenting mixed signals.

Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, has compared gold's 57% surge in 2025 to bitcoin's current consolidation phase. He suggests bitcoin may follow a similar breakout pattern once its remaining seller base is depleted, mirroring gold's trajectory after sustained central bank purchases exhausted price-sensitive sellers. Since January 2024, institutional channels and corporations have acquired roughly 1.39 million BTC through spot ETFs and direct purchases, creating a supply-demand imbalance that Hougan believes could drive a breakout.

BlackRock acquired 1,884 BTC on October 21 in a transaction worth approximately $200 million. The purchase brought the fund's total Bitcoin holdings to 803,200 BTC, valued at roughly $86.5 billion, data show. The acquisition occurred as Bitcoin declined nearly 3% to an intraday low of $107,552, erasing weekend gains.

A major Bitcoin holder has initiated a $235 million short position with 10x leverage at $111,190, following reported profits of $200 million from BTC's recent drop to $100,000. The position faces liquidation risk if Bitcoin rises above $112,368. Separately, another large trader known as the "Trump insider" has expanded his short to 2,100 BTC worth approximately $227 million.

Addresses holding 100-1,000 BTC have increased their holdings in recent periods, replicating accumulation patterns seen before the 2017 and 2021 bull markets, according to Alphractal. Liquidation data shows the highest concentration of open liquidations has shifted to short positions, while Bitcoin traded near $108,292 with technical indicators signaling oversold conditions. The trend reflects long-term conviction among mid-tier holders contrasted with short-term uncertainty driven by derivatives positioning.