Macro: Policy Conflict Eases and Institutional Resilience
In the past two weeks, global markets have experienced significant volatility due to competitive policies and varying asset performance. A key factor in this situation stemmed from changes in U.S. economic policy: the Trump administration announced a suspension of new tariffs on China while keeping existing tariffs at 145%. This “compromise signal” increased investors’ risk appetite and eased earlier concerns about supply chain disruptions resulting from “reciprocal tariffs.” Consequently, U.S. core PCE inflation expectations declined by 1.1 percentage points, and GDP growth is projected to rebound by 0.8%.
In this context, Bitcoin displayed remarkable resilience, reaching a price of $94,000 on April 23, with a weekly increase of 12.2%. The discussion is shifting from viewing Bitcoin primarily as an “anti-inflation hedge” to recognizing it as a “de-sovereignized reserve asset.” Additionally, its correlation with the S&P 500 has fallen to -0.3, reinforcing its position as an innovative hedging tool amid tensions between U.S. and China policies.
Institutional investors remained strategically composed despite Bitcoin’s pullback to the $74,500 range in mid-April, which raised concerns about the debt risks associated with MicroStrategy. Between April 14 and April 20, MicroStrategy defied market trends by acquiring an additional 6,556 BTC, bringing its total holdings to 538,000 BTC, which represents 2.71% of the circulating supply. Analysis suggests that the company has no mandatory debt repayments due until 2027. Additionally, its unencumbered Bitcoin holdings allow for flexibility in securing collateralized financing, helping to alleviate any short-term liquidity pressures.
However, vigilance is necessary over the medium to long term: extended BTC prices under $50,000 may trigger “non-linear risks” stemming from the relationship between debt obligations and market cycles.
RWA: The East-West Game in Asset Tokenization Paths
The total on-chain Real World Assets (RWA) market has exceeded $21.01 billion, reflecting a growth of 7.12% in the last 30 days, which amounts to $1.7 billion. Major players like Franklin Templeton are increasingly investing in this sector. As expectations for rate cuts by the Federal Reserve rise, the widening yield gap between decentralized finance (DeFi) products (offering 2% to 4%) and RWA U.S. Treasury products (providing over 5%) is prompting capital to shift from speculative assets to compliant RWA offerings.
The sector is quite complex. On April 13, the top project, MANTRA (OM), saw a drastic decline of 85.56%, raising doubts about the project’s transparency and decentralized governance.
In the strategic divide between East and West, U.S. firms like BlackRock and Fidelity are focusing on tokenizing standardized assets, such as Treasuries and REITs, to reinforce their dominance in traditional finance. In contrast, Asia is taking a different approach. Hong Kong and Singapore are addressing liquidity challenges for non-standardized assets among small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Additionally, the Shanghai Data Exchange’s proposed Real Data Assets (RDA) concept could expedite the standardization of supply chain finance and intellectual property assets.
