Over the past eight days, Bitcoin has failed twice to break above the $94k local resistance, while its higher timeframe trend remains bearish despite a rebound from $84k over the last three weeks. On-chain data indicates a sharp drop in stablecoin inflows since August and mounting losses for short-term holders, yet some analysts suggest the current phase looks more like a stabilization period than a full crypto-winter.

Bitcoin has rebounded from $84,000 to near $93,000 and is consolidating around $91,400 as exchange selling pressure and whale deposits decline. On-chain metrics point to weakened short-term holder activity and a potential move toward the $98,700 resistance, with some traders eyeing the $102,000–$112,700 zone if momentum builds. Analysts describe the setup as fragile but improving, with macro policy expectations and subdued ETF inflows still shaping the next major breakout.

Standard Chartered has reduced its 2026 Bitcoin price target to $150,000 from $300,000 and argues ETF flows, rather than the halving cycle, now drive the market. The bank also lowered projections for 2025, 2027, 2028 and 2029, while keeping a $500,000 goal for 2030. Bernstein likewise revised its outlook, setting $150,000 for 2026 and a potential $200,000 peak in 2027. Bitcoin was trading around $92,686.

On December 9, 2025, Tidal Trust II filed with the U.S. SEC for the Nicholas Bitcoin and Treasuries AfterDark ETF, a fund designed to hold Bitcoin exposure only overnight after U.S. markets close. The strategy would gain BTC exposure via spot Bitcoin ETFs, futures, options and U.S.-listed ETPs at night, and rotate into short-term U.S. Treasuries during the day. The filing warns investors could lose part or all of their capital due to market and derivatives risks. Recent data show U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded over $150 million in net inflows as of December 9, with cumulative net inflows at $57.71 billion and total net assets at $122.1 billion.

On 10 December 2025, a filing outlined an ETF that would gain Bitcoin exposure only after regular U.S. equity trading hours and exit the position by the next morning. The strategy is based on historical data indicating stronger Bitcoin performance in late-evening and overnight sessions. Analysts describe it as part of broader financial-engineering experiments in the ETF space and position it as a specialized complement to existing spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Bitcoin is trading around the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level that traders say is pivotal to preserving its broader uptrend. A decisive breakdown could open the way to April’s low near $76,000. Over the weekend, BTC briefly fell below $88,000 during a leverage washout before rebounding above $91,500. Markets are now focused on the upcoming Fed meeting and U.S. macro data, while on-chain metrics hint at underlying buyer interest.

Bitcoin is approaching the FOMC decision with weak liquidity, fragile leverage and mounting miner stress. On-chain gauges signal short-term capitulation amid range-bound global liquidity. Several key U.S. data releases could spark volatility before the policy update. Whether sidelined cash rotates into risk assets may determine if price can reclaim key levels.

EMJ Capital CEO Eric Jackson has laid out a long-term scenario in which Bitcoin’s price could climb to $50 million per coin by 2041, tying the projection to his view that it will evolve into a core collateral asset for the global financial system. Drawing on the same "hundred bagger" framework he previously applied to distressed stocks such as Carvana, he argues that Bitcoin’s digital, programmable and apolitical design could eventually support sovereign borrowing. He contends that if Bitcoin came to underpin the sovereign debt market, its price would need to trade far above its current level of $91,574.